Universal Registration Document 2024
4 SUSTAINABILITY REPORT ENVIRONMENTAL MATTERS
[E1-ESRS 2 SBM-3-19-(a)] → Description of the scope of the resilience analysis
u changes relating to the uptake of sustainable alternative fuels (SAF) for all flights departing from Paris and other airports in the European Union, in line with the EU's "Fit for 55" legislative package for 2025-2050. The impact of this regulatory change on demand depends on three factors: i) the rate of incorporation of DAC in Paris, in line with the mandates of the European Union and the French emissions reduction roadmap for the air transport sector, ii) the increase in the price of airline tickets, as a result of the additional fuel costs, and iii) price/demand elasticity; u from 2035, development of a fleet of low-carbon hydrogen-powered aircraft able to serve airports within 2,000 nautical miles of Paris. The consequences of this development on air travel demand are modelled using a method similar to that described for SAF, with specific assumptions about the rate at which the new hydrogen powered aircraft will be introduced; u regulatory developments relating to the revision of the EU–ETS, with an impact on flights within the EU from 2024 and flights to/from the French overseas territories from 2030. The trigger is the rapid decrease in the allocation of free emissions allowances to airlines from 2024 onwards, moving to full auctioning for the sector by 2026. The impact of these regulatory developments on Paris airports will be visible from 2025, gradually increasing until 2040, and then decreasing as the SAF uptake mandates gather pace. Overall, the Group considers that in a traffic forecast excluding the above-mentioned adjustment factors, the average annual growth in passenger traffic in Paris would be between 2.0% and 2.5% over 2024-2050 ( i.e. , between 170 million and 195 million passengers by 2050). However, once these different adjustment factors are taken into account, the Group estimates that this same average annual growth in passenger traffic in Paris would be between 1.0% and 1.5% ( i.e. , between 130 million and 155 million passengers by 2050). The Group adopted this latter scenario as its traffic base case in the business plan underlying the impairment tests. The possible impacts of future climate change or global warming on traffic volumes and types, both in terms of passengers and aircraft movements, were also taken into account beyond the Parisian hubs. For example, the business plan for Amman airport, operated by AIG, assumes – taking into account a regulatory transition risk – that the air route between Amman and Aqaba (a coastal city in southern Jordan, 330 km from Amman) will only be used by passengers connecting to international flights departing from Amman, given that domestic transport alternatives will make the direct link between the two cities. However, no specific adjustment for applicable regulatory constraints was included in the traffic forecasts for assets owned by TAV Airports or AIG, as these countries are not subject to specific regulations as is the case in the European Union.
Climate risk analysis is an integral part of the company's risk management policy, with the ultimate aim of studying the resilience of Groupe ADP's business model. The scope of the analysis (gross physical climate risks) is general, since it takes into account all airport activities and their value chain in the Group's different geographical areas. The results of the climate risk analysis have been taken into account to strengthen the resilience of the Group's strategy and business model in a number of ways: u the analysis of the transition risks and opportunities has confirmed the value of the two main angles for transforming the airport model into an energy hub and a multimodal hub. They contribute to the robust operation of airports and the diversification of the Group's activities; u the analysis of transitional and physical risks highlighted the need to strengthen the energy sovereignty of airport hubs by moving, for example, towards the production of photovoltaic electricity or geothermal heat; u a climate risk analysis will be carried out, where appropriate, for any significant investment project or concession merger/acquisition; u a resilience analysis was also carried out by means of an impairment test, the assumptions and results of which are detailed in the paragraph below. [E1-ESRS 2 SBM-3-19-(b)] → Information on how the resilience analysis was carried out Consideration of climate change in the Group's business plans underlying impairment tests. Impact on traffic forecasts Firstly, among the key assumptions used for the impairment tests on non-financial assets, the Group paid particular attention to the existing links between traffic forecasts, the risk of climate change/global warming and environmental protection. With regard to the Paris airports, which currently represent the Group's main asset in terms of value, the traffic assumptions in the base case take into account adjustment factors that enable the air traffic forecast to be modified, both in terms of demand and supply and ultimately in terms of average annual growth rates. This enables the Group to capture the impact of measures related to the environmental transition of the air transport sector described in the emissions reduction roadmap set for the sector in France. There are three types of adjustment factors: behavioural, regulatory and economic. In the base case related to medium- and long-term air traffic forecasts for the Paris airports, the following factors were taken into account in the Group's reference trajectory: u changes in behaviour leading to a more pronounced modal shift of passengers towards rail travel for domestic traffic, reducing demand and supply in this segment. For example, the Group considered the impact of the extension of the Bordeaux-Toulouse TGV line on air traffic demand from "Origin/Destination" passengers to/from Toulouse at Paris - Orly;
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AÉROPORTS DE PARIS w UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2024
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